Homeowners not losing sleep over interest rate rises, survey shows

A new survey has revealed Kiwi homeowners are largely unfazed about their ability to cope with mortgage rate rises, but they are continuing to find it difficult to curb spending on consumer items.

The nationwide survey by mortgage franchise network New Zealand Home Loans (NZHL) found more than half of respondents (57.6%) were either not concerned or were neutral about the potential for future interest rate increases.

The sentiment comes after the Reserve Bank held the official cash rate (OCR) last month at 1.75%.

Speaking to NZ Adviser, NZHL chief executive Julian Travaglia said although interest rates are slowly going up they are not completely unpredictable like in the past.

“I remember the days when rates were bouncing around like an elephant on a bungee cord,” he says, in contrast to their current slow but steady climb and the Reserve Bank indicating an OCR increase is unlikely any time soon.

“I don’t see the pressures that would require the Reserve Bank to force the OCR up particularly given that the housing market, at least temporarily, seems to be cooling.

“I think has made people a little bit complacent. I think people still don’t really understand that interest rates are by and large driven by off-shore funding costs by the banks as opposed to necessarily the OCR.”

He says mortgage holders should be paying off their debt faster and smarter.

“What we’ve seen from people’s spending habits is that they’ve managed to get themselves a home loan over a long period now when rates go up – when they come off that fixed rate and go on a new one, they can’t suddenly extend their home loan term out to make the payments lower again.

“So it’s going to force people into a position where they’re going to have to either make some reasonable cut backs or they’re going to get into some financial difficulty.”

Despite the view on interest rates, the survey found that homeowners have some areas of spending that don’t feel they have under control, with the biggest problem area of unplanned spending being around consumer items such as household electronics, tools and sports goods where 47% of respondents found difficulty controlling spending and secondly for services like household maintenance at 46%.

Travaglia he is concerned about those who have overextended themselves in the last few years and now tied to a hefty mortgage.

“If they haven’t been paying that off sooner – making hay while the low interest rate sun’s shining – they could find themselves in trouble down the track,” he told NZ Adviser.

The survey respondents consisted of 1,994 NZHL clients.

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Homebuyers ‘slightly less pessimistic’: report

House price expectations have cooled as the market cools but people expect interest rates to rise over the coming year, a new report has revealed.

According to ASB’s Housing Confidence Survey for the January quarter, buyer sentiment has edged higher but is still hovering around record lows with New Zealanders still saying it’s a bad time to buy a house.

A net 17% of people think it’s a bad time to buy a house, up from a net 26% (a historical low) in October.

Forty-six per cent of respondents believe house prices will rise (compared to 58% three months ago), the second lowest level for price expectations since 2012.

ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley says the survey findings correspond with the slow-down in housing market activity following the Reserve Bank’s latest investor-focussed loan-to-value ratio (LVR) restrictions.

“Not only has housing market data shown a fall in sales activity recently, it has also suggested house price growth has slowed in a number of regions,” Tuffley says.

“It is likely that the weaker market activity has impacted on respondents’ house price expectations this quarter.

“Elevated house prices are likely to still be weighing on sentiment, as are the higher deposit requirements now facing investors in particular,” he said.

“On balance, respondents see it as a bad time to buy, but are slightly less pessimistic than three months ago.”

Tuffley also said Kiwis seem to believe the days of super low interest rate days are over.

“Recent lifts in mortgage rates appear to have respondents bracing themselves for more. While we expect the RBNZ to leave the OCR on hold until late 2018, funding pressures and higher offshore interest rates could see mortgage rates creep higher,” Tuffley said.

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Chinese bank giant pushes into New Zealand mortgage market

China’s biggest bank has begun making inroads into this country’s mortgage market.

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China New Zealand began lending last year and made $11.2 million in home loans in the 12 months to December 31, according to a disclosure statement lodged with the Companies Office.

That would fund the purchase of about 19 Auckland houses, based on the median price in the city of $720,000 and borrowers having 20 per cent equity.

New Zealand’s total mortgage lending runs to more than $200 billion, according to Reserve Bank figures.

While ICBC New Zealand’s residential loan book is still just a drop in that bucket, chairman Don Brash said the bank was focused on growth.

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