General

7% mortgage rates could collapse housing market

Shai Patel

In its May Financial Stability Report the Reserve Bank of New Zealand reveals the results stress tests designed to assess the vulnerability of households to service their mortgages if rates rise.

It’s findings show a high number of owner-occupier households would be under financial stress if rates jump, which could collapse the housing market as defaults rise as demand weakens further.

The central bank considered a 7% mortgage rate, close to the average for a 2-year loan over the past decade, and a 9% rate which it says is “extreme but still plausible.”

At a 7% rate, the bank estimates that 4% of all borrowers (6% of the total stock of mortgage debt) and 5% of recent borrowers (9% of total) would be unable to manage their essential expenses. A further 9% of all borrowers would have only a small buffer for discretionary spending.

At a 9% mortgage rate, 7% of all borrowers and 19% of recent borrowers would be unable to manage.

“While the LVR restrictions have increased the banks’ resilience to any fall in house prices, a significant share of housing loans are being made at high debt-to-income (DTI) ratios. Such borrowers tend to be more vulnerable to any increase in interest rates or declines in income,” said RBNZ Deputy Governor Grant Spencer.

The report warns that Auckland’s mortgage borrowers are at a higher vulnerability to increased rates with 5% in the city estimated to be unable to meet essential expenses at a mortgage rate of 7% compared to 3% elsewhere.

With high levels of New Zealand’s homeowners vulnerable to mortgage rate rises, the central bank forecasts that a sharp and unexpected hike in rates could see defaults increase, consumption cut, and homes being sold to pay debts.

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Why KiwiSaver balances go up… and down

Shai Patel

Quick question: what’s the difference between a savings account and a KiwiSaver account?

Short answer: when you put money in, the first always goes up, but the other goes up and down. That’s no small thing.

And while we personal finance folks like to go on about the magic of compounding for both saving and investment, sometimes we’d be better off pointing out how different the two are.

The one caveat to saying that a savings account always goes up is inflation. Savings can actually roll backwards as well, when you bring inflation into the picture. You’re adding money, but its real value and how much it can buy gradually becomes less and less. This is why we need investing.

Which brings us back to KiwiSaver, which is not a savings account as many people think of it, but rather an investment account. And investing is aimed at buying assets that become more valuable over time, despite inflation. It’s the remedy for inflation.

But what could make a KiwiSaver account balance lose ground?

Why your KiwiSaver account can go down

Okay, so I won’t bore everyone with too technical a discussion on unitisation, but the key thing to know is that when you put money into KiwiSaver, you’re buying units.

Units are a way of keeping track of what we own in KiwiSaver.

These units are linked to the assets our fund has invested in, such as shares, commercial property or bonds. Think of the investments like a big fat orange – and our units as a segment of that. When the orange rises or falls in value, so does the value of our segment.

Unlike a savings account, where we’re setting money aside, in KiwiSaver we are buying things that have value. That orange can be priced higher on the market at some times, lower in others. It’s a very normal state of affairs.

When we look at a savings account balance, we rightly think about how much we have. Not so with our KiwiSaver balance. When we look at that, what we’re really seeing is how much our fund’s investments and our corresponding units are worth – what their value is right now. Again, no small thing.

So perhaps instead of asking ourselves how much we have in KiwiSaver, we should be asking, “How much is my KiwiSaver worth at the moment?” Might be higher, might be lower.

Of course, the idea is for our units to increase in value over time. Either because someone else will pay more for them on the market or because they earn income like rent or dividends, the overall trend should be up. That’s why we do this! Without the aim of a return, there would be no point.

But there is such a thing as a negative return.

Why your KiwiSaver account will go down

Since the GFC in 2008, we’ve had good times of growth in KiwiSaver. Long may that continue!

But this also means that most of us have only seen things move in one direction, with KiwiSaver balances almost never heading down. Things did dip a bit last August, but because most of us contribute small amounts regularly to our KiwiSaver, we probably only saw things flatten out a bit. Our balances would not have gone down at all.

At some stage they will. If you remember the GFC or are a veteran of the dot com bubble, you’ll remember how quickly markets can turn, and how assets can suddenly be worth less. When something like that happens again, we will see our KiwiSaver balances tumble.

Again, this is because our balances do not measure the money we have, but what our units are worth.

And because people feel losses so much more acutely than gains, typically there will be thousands of people calling up their KiwiSaver providers trying to understand how on earth they have lost money when they have been putting in cash all this time! We’ll need to be ready.

Much of this is about the right mindset to have when there is a downturn. Ideally, we’ll say something like:

• “Yep, saw that one coming.”
• “Bound to occur from time to time.”
• “Must be that point in the cycle.”
• “I wonder what it’ll be worth in 10 years?”

The worst action would to be to act rashly and run for cover. “Sell! Sell!” is the classic scene of a moneybags barking into a phone to his broker. If we suddenly sell our units and buy others that seem far safer in another fund, we effectively lock in our losses and miss out when values rebound. We lose money permanently.

It’s all about perspective. Because we are typically drip-feeding into our funds, when unit prices plunge, they actually become a bargain. Someone might say, for instance, “I’m putting even more money in now because I know I’ll reap rewards in the future.” When oranges are on sale, it can be a good time to buy.

Now if any of this talk about balances moving up and down makes you anxious, you should contact us to make sure you’re in the fund that suits you best. After all, you should be relaxed about your KiwiSaver and not losing sleep.

So what’s the difference between a savings account and a KiwiSaver account? One only goes up. The other goes up and down, but should always be worth much more in the long run.

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KiwiSaver hits $40b, but balances stay low

Shai Patel

Strong investment growth has boosted the value of KiwiSaver to over $40 billion but individual balances remain low for many despite the scheme running for nearly 10 years.

Figures from Australian research firm Strategic Insight show total KiwiSaver funds hit $40.651 billion at the end of March, up from $38.416b as of December 31.

Daniel Morris, senior manager data and systems support at Strategic Insight, said KiwiSaver had seen 5.8 per cent growth over the quarter, bouncing back after a period of lower growth in the December quarter.

“It was probably a bit larger than expected,” he said

But while the total amount looks impressive, individual saving are still relatively small.

Based on Inland Revenue figures 2,727,675 people were signed up to KiwiSaver in March, putting the average balance at $14,903.

David Boyle, group manager education at the Commission for Financial Capability, said that on the surface KiwiSaver looked as if it were going well.

“But scratch the surface and there are some significant concerns and issues that need to be addressed to really get KiwiSaver delivering to its true potential.”

Boyle said the average balance was affected by the number of under 18-year-olds in the scheme who did not have much in their accounts.

“Most were signed up when the $1k kickstart was available and talking to a number of providers very few of these members are making any regular contributions until they reach the age of 18. So this affects the average balance.”

About 360,000 members are under 18.

Boyle said about 580,000 people, another group, were not getting the full government subsidy which meant they were contributing nothing or less than $1043 a year.

He said KiwiSaver providers needed to do more.

“Providers need to keep working on getting their members connected to their KiwiSaver account, especially those that have not made contributions but are eligible for the member tax credit.”

Claire Matthews, a KiwiSaver expert at Massey University, said it was hard to judge whether the $40b figure was a reason for celebration because people might have saved that money regardless of KiwiSaver.

“We don’t know what people would have saved without that.”

Matthews said an average balance of less than $15k did not sound a lot but it depended on the age of the person.

“For someone aged 60 – if that is all they have saved it’s not great,” she said.

But for someone in their 20s it was a good start which would now benefit from compound interest.

Matthews said the Government needed to increase the minimum contribution rate to help boost balances.

She believed individuals should contribute 10 per cent of what they earned. The current minimum is 3 per cent.

Richard Klipin, chief executive of the Financial Services Council, said the average balance of between $14,000 and $15,000 was a start.

“Like most developing countries we have got to start somewhere.”

But he said it was not enough and it opened up the need for greater advice around how much was enough to live off in retirement.

Susan St John, co-director of Auckland University’s Retirement Policy and Research Centre, said although average balances were growing, those at the low end would likely not have much at retirement.

“Not only have withdrawals for housing accelerated, but many struggling families are having to access funds under hardship claims.

“Many of those under the median will have very small amounts, if any on retirement.”

On top of that issue she said male median balances would outpace female balances.

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Are You Maximising Your KiwiSaver? – Make sure you do by 30th June 2017!

Shai Patel

I wanted to make you aware of Member Tax Credits for KiwiSaver that you are able to claim.

There were just under 580,000 eligible KiwiSaver members who received no contribution from the Government in their accounts in the 2016 financial year. That’s up from 573,000 the year before, 517,000 a year earlier and 466,000 in the 2012/2013 year. – Why let the Government keep money that is entitled to you!!

The Government contribution to your KiwiSaver savings is worth up to a maximum of $521.43 – but to get the full amount, you need to have contributed at least $1042.86 by 30 June 2017.

The Government pays 50 cents for every $1 you contribute, the maximum will be $521.43, so therefore you need to contribute $1042.86 to maximise the tax credit

If  you are 18 or over, working, self-employed or not working, you can get these tax credits as long as you contribute $1,042.86 for the year. 

You can check your KiwiSaver contributions online with most providers and see if you have contributed at least $1,042.86.

You DO NOT have to contribute if you do not wish to or you can contribute what is affordable in order to get at least some of the $521. (So for example if you contributed $500 you would receive $250 tax credit).

We can show you ways to make this easier over the course of the year and plan it so that you are maximising the benefits of KiwiSaver.

If you have any questions, then please feel free to contact me on 09 551 3500 or email info@insurenz.co.nz.

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RBNZ forecasts low rates to stay, sees weaker inflation ahead

Shai Patel

(Bloomberg) — New Zealand’s central bank kept interest rates at a record low and forecast they will remain there for an extended period, saying inflation will slow. 

“Monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period,” Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler said in a statement Thursday in Wellington after holding the official cash rate at 1.75 percent. “Numerous uncertainties remain and policy may need to adjust accordingly.”

Wheeler is wary of stoking expectations of a rate increase for fear of boosting the kiwi dollar and curbing inflation, which returned to the midpoint of the RBNZ’s 1-3 percent target band in the first quarter for the first time in more than five years. The bank projected Thursday that inflation will slow to 1.1 percent in the first quarter of 2018, and said a premature monetary tightening could undermine growth.

The New Zealand dollar fell more than one U.S. cent after Wheeler’s statement. It bought 68.28 cents at 10:34 a.m. in Wellington from 69.37 cents immediately before the release. The currency’s 5 percent decline on a trade-weighted basis over the past three months is “encouraging and, if sustained, will help to rebalance the growth outlook towards the tradables sector,” Wheeler said.

All 16 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected Thursday’s decision, and they all forecast the benchmark rate will remain at 1.75 percent throughout this year. Four tip a rate rise in early 2018, and swaps data late Wednesday showed a 69 percent chance of an increase in the first quarter. Those odds fell to 58 percent today.

“The inflation forecasts seem to be testing the realms of credibility, given an economy that is forecast to continue to grow above trend,” said Cameron Bagrie, chief economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Wellington. “However, the message from the RBNZ is clear: policy is set to remain on hold for a considerable period and it has no interest whatsoever in pre-empting a policy tightening.”

On Hold
The central bank projected the average OCR will be 1.8 percent in early 2018, maintaining its previous forecast. Its projections show interest rates won’t start to rise until the third quarter of 2019, also unchanged from its last estimate.

“Premature tightening of policy could undermine growth, causing inflation to persistently undershoot the target midpoint,” the RBNZ said in its Monetary Policy Statement. At the same time, “further policy easing, in an attempt to see non-tradables inflation strengthen more quickly, would risk generating unnecessary volatility in the economy.”

Even though inflation has picked up much faster than the RBNZ expected, climbing to 2.2 percent in the March quarter, Wheeler said that was mainly due to temporary influences such as food and fuel prices. Recent developments “on balance are considered to be neutral for the stance of monetary policy,” he said.

Strong Growth
New Zealand’s economy expanded at a healthy clip through 2016, supported by record immigration and booming tourism and construction. Still, gross domestic product rose 2.7 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier — less than the RBNZ and most economists expected.

“The growth outlook remains positive, supported by on-going accommodative monetary policy, strong population growth and high levels of household spending and construction activity,” Wheeler said.

Growth will accelerate to 3.7 percent in the first quarter of 2018 from a year earlier, the RBNZ forecast today.

Wheeler in October introduced new lending restrictions for property investors in an attempt to cool the nation’s rampant housing market and give himself more room to keep rates low. There are signs the tighter rules may be having an impact, with house-price inflation slowing in largest city Auckland.

“This moderation is expected to continue, although there is a risk of resurgence given the continuing imbalance between supply and demand,” Wheeler said.

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Reserve Bank delivers cash rate call

Shai Patel

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has this morning left the official cash rate unchanged at 1.75%. 

Governor Graeme Wheeler said in a statement, “House price inflation has moderated further, especially in Auckland. The slowing in house price inflation partly reflects loan-to-value ratio restrictions and tighter lending conditions. This moderation is projected to continue, although there is a risk of resurgence given the continuing imbalance between supply and demand.

“Monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period. Numerous uncertainties remain and policy may need to adjust accordingly.”

Canstar general manager Jose George said it is an uncertain environment for home owners and warned on the increasing pressure for mortgage holders.

“As recent statistics show, while house prices have started cooling in  Auckland and other larger cities, mortgage rates are starting to trend upwards,” said George.

“Independent of OCR, the costs of servicing a mortgage are rising. Couple this with rising inflation and the flow-on effect this could have on other living costs, you have a situation where an already stretched household budget will not be able to take the added pressure for most NZers.

“For savers the situation is more positive.  Despite a series of drops in OCR, term deposit rates have remained largely untouched over the last 12 months or so. We are now starting to see increases in deposit rates, reinforcing the belief that banks are keen to grow their existing domestic deposit book.

The full statement by Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler is below:
Global economic growth has increased and become more broad-based over recent months. However, major challenges remain with on-going surplus capacity and extensive political uncertainty.

Stronger global demand has helped to raise commodity prices over the past year, which has led to some increase in headline inflation across New Zealand’s trading partners. However, the level of core inflation has generally remained low. Monetary policy is expected to remain stimulatory in the advanced economies, but less so going forward.

The trade-weighted exchange rate has fallen by around 5 percent since February, partly in response to global developments and reduced interest rate differentials. This is encouraging and, if sustained, will help to rebalance the growth outlook towards the tradables sector.

GDP growth in the second half of 2016 was weaker than expected. Nevertheless, the growth outlook remains positive, supported by on-going accommodative monetary policy, strong population growth, and high levels of household spending and construction activity.

House price inflation has moderated further, especially in Auckland. The slowing in house price inflation partly reflects loan-to-value ratio restrictions and tighter lending conditions. This moderation is projected to continue, although there is a risk of resurgence given the continuing imbalance between supply and demand.

The increase in headline inflation in the March quarter was mainly due to higher tradables inflation, particularly petrol and food prices. These effects are temporary and may lead to some variability in headline inflation over the year ahead. Non-tradables and wage inflation remain moderate but are expected to increase gradually. This will bring future headline inflation to the midpoint of the target band over the medium term. Longer-term inflation expectations remain well-anchored at around 2 percent.

Developments since the February Monetary Policy Statement on balance are considered to be neutral for the stance of monetary policy.

Monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period. Numerous uncertainties remain and policy may need to adjust accordingly.

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Auckland no longer the most unaffordable region

Shai Patel

Central Otago Lakes has now overtaken Auckland as the most unaffordable region in New Zealand, a new report shows.

The latest Massey University Home Affordability Report for the period from December 2016 to February 2017, revealed national affordability had improved over the quarter, due to a fall in house prices in seven regions, including Auckland.

But affordability declined in Central Otago Lakes by 8.2% over the same period.

“This was in contrast to a considerable 7.5% improvement in Auckland’s affordability and, on the Massey index, Central Otago Lakes now ranks as the country’s least affordable region,” says report author associate professor Graham Squires from Massey’s School of Economics and Finance.

“Central Otago also has the largest decline in affordability over the 12-month period, which is a reflection of tourism industry demand in Queenstown, a shortage of housing supply, speculative investment demand, a focus on high-end lifestyle living in the area, and largely stagnant wage increases.”

Auckland’s median house price fell by $51,944 over the last quarter (6.1%).

“These two regions are the least affordable by a clear margin,” Dr Squires said. “Auckland still sits at 55% less affordable than the rest of the country, and Central Otago Lakes is now 68% less affordable than the rest of New Zealand.”

Despite the improvement in affordability in seven regions in both the report’s annual and quarterly figures, Dr Squires said the ratio of median house price to median wage remains very high in Auckland and Central Otago Lakes.

“In our two most expensive regions this will continue to place strain on first home buyers, especially in Central Otago Lakes where the median house price is nearly 14 times the median annual wage.”

Dr Squires noted that slowing house prices and record low interest rates were driving the improvement in affordability but that rates were on the rise.

“It’s important to note that that the quarterly interest rate used to calculate the index is a weighted average of all loans and that is currently at 4.85%. New customers’ rates for January are now much higher – generally between five and six per cent, depending on the type and term of the loan.

“It is possible more stringent deposit and bank lending requirements and interest rate rises could make it more difficult for home buyers in the future.”

Mortgage rate rises expected to continue

Shai Patel

As part of their Asia-Pacific banking outlook series, S&P Global Ratings analysts discussed their forecasts for New Zealand’s banking sector.

During a live webcast last week, the key points made were that the New Zealand credit cycle appears to be maturing and risks stemming from rising house prices and household debt levels are expected to stabilize this year.

Bank performance is expected to remain strong although they forecast credit growth within New Zealand’s banking system to slow.

Factors contributing to the stabilization include the expected continuation of increasing residential mortgage rates, funding gaps, margin recovery and macro prudential measures reducing the number of participants in the mortgage market.

Analysts said bank margins are facing a number of headwinds including higher funding costs; higher ‘core’ funding requirements; and likely higher capital requirements. They expect slower lending growth to help meet some of the funding requirement.

Financial Services Ratings associate director, Andrew Mayes said, “We don’t expect to see house prices fall, but we do expect them to slow,” as the more recent round of restrictions appear to have had an impact.

“Other indicators of heightened risk within the system still remain,” he continued, including interest only loans, household debt and limits to the extent of the Reserve Bank’s influence, particularly if migration remains strong and housing supply remains insufficient.

Mayes said he doesn’t see debt-to-income restrictions being introduced during an election year.

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New Zealanders unaware of rate rise impacts: survey

Shai Patel

It’s no secret that interest rates are on the rise and most people with a mortgage anticipate the increase, a new BNZ survey shows.

But worryingly, it also found the majority intend to make no changes to their mortgages in response the rate increases.

The BNZ Financial Futures research found that home owners with mortgages were in the dark about how the impact a 1% interest rate rise would have on their household – three out of five people underestimated how much extra people will pay on the average mortgage size.

BNZ’s director of retail and marketing, Paul Carter said, “It’s concerning that despite 70% of people with mortgages anticipating interest rates will rise this year, 67% of mortgagors are not considering making any changes to their mortgage.”

The survey found 24% of people said they regularly monitor interest rates and proactively restructure their mortgage.

A BNZ spokeswoman told NZ Adviser many homeowners tend to have the mentality of ‘setting and forgetting’ their mortgage.

“This probably comes down to people not appreciating how small changes to their mortgage repayment schedule can reduce the lifetime of their mortgage and how much interest they’ll pay,” she said.

“Our main concern is that people will end up paying unnecessary interest over the lifetime of their mortgage.

“For most homeowners interest rate rises will change their household budget and it’s important they consider how they can react – they might want to fix a bigger part of their mortgage or increase their repayments slightly while rates are still near their lowest level in a generation.”

She said the third party channel can help increase awareness on the issue with their clients, having conversations about how their mortgage is set up and what repayments they can manage.

One in five home owners said they were likely to extend the term of their mortgage if their mortgage payment increased by $120 per fortnight, the research found. Nearly one in three said they’d look to reduce utilities like insurance, petrol, heating and power.

Carter said it’s important New Zealanders understand all their budgeting options in a changing mortgage environment.

“New Zealanders will still be enjoying some of the lowest rates in a generation. So it concerns me that too many people are jumping straight into what seems to be the easy option, which is a couple more years on the mortgage – especially when the changes we’re talking about are small.

“BNZ, like most New Zealand banks, stress-tests people with mortgages at an interest rate higher than the current rates, so we know that budgets and incomes can manage rate rises much bigger than this.

“So while we know our customers have room to move within their budgets to absorb any rises, it’s particularly concerning that 20% of people with mortgages would extend the term of their mortgage if their repayments increased by $120 or more, as this is only going to set them back in the long term,” he said.

“It’s a good idea to occasionally have a sobering conversation about the household budget and consider some ‘what ifs’.

The BNZ Financial Futures research was conducted by Colmar Brunton, a New Zealand Market Research Company surveying a total sample size of 2,000.

Please contact us if you have any questions. 09 551 3500
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Call for NZ to rethink bowel screening

Shai Patel

New Zealand needs to rethink its exorbitantly expensive second-rate bowel screening programme based on research from the UK.

That’s the view of Associate Professor Brian Cox from the University of Otago who says UK research proves flexible sigmoidoscopy screening is better than the faecal occult blood (FOBT) New Zealand is planning to use.

During a sigmoidoscopy exam, a thin, flexible tube, or sigmoidoscope, is inserted into the rectum, while a FOBT detects very small amounts of blood in a bowel motion before they become visible to the naked eye.

The results of a UK trial of flexible sigmoidoscopy published in The Lancet confirmed the reduced bowel cancer incidence and mortality persists for at least 17 years after the flexible sigmoidoscopy test. The benefit is very likely to persist for the rest of a person’s life, Professor Cox says.

He says a 15-minute sigmoidoscopy is by far the most cost-effective strategy for reducing bowel cancer in New Zealand and it could be performed by GPs.

“This is the most cancer-preventing 15 minutes anyone could ever undertake.”

A flexible sigmoidoscopy screening test once when aged 55-64 years reduces lifelong risk of bowel cancer by 35 per cent and mortality from bowel cancer by 41 per cent.

Professor Cox says the earlier results of the UK trial at 11 years of follow-up were published in 2010 but were not deemed sufficient by the Ministry of Health to guide the development of bowel screening policy in New Zealand and only a pilot study of two-yearly FOBT screening was pursued.

The evidence from the UK trial clearly indicates the need to completely rethink the approach to bowel screening in New Zealand before an exorbitantly expensive second-rate FOBT programme is instituted, he says.

A national flexible sigmoidoscopy programme could begin within 12 months covering the entire country.

About 3,000 New Zealanders are diagnosed with bowel cancer each year, and it’s the second most common cause of cancer death.

Budget 2016 invests $39.3 million for national bowel screening, starting with Hutt Valley and Wairarapa DHBs in 2017.

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